MCP For Claude Marketplace
Polling Bias & EV Engine

Polling Bias & EV Engine MCP Connector for Claude

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A deterministic pricing engine that adjusts polling data for historical bias and calculates Expected Value (EV) for prediction markets.

3 tools Official Updated Oct 1, 2026 Official Vinkius Partner
More Details Connect to Claude

This MCP server provides a mathematical bridge between raw polling data and prediction market pricing. It allows AI agents to correct for known historical polling errors and temporal uncertainty to find mispriced opportunities. By using calculate_adjusted_probability, agents can derive a refined likelihood of an outcome. Then, by calling evaluate_market_opportunity, they can determine if the current market price offers a statistically significant Expected Value (EV) for a trade. The engine also provides get_market_summary to quickly identify if a market is underpricing or overpricing a candidate based on the raw poll.

pollingexpected-valuepoliticsprobabilitymarket-analysis

3 tools expose this connector's capabilities to your AI agent.

get_market_summary

Provides a high-level overview of the discrepancy between polling data and market pricing

calculate_adjusted_probability

Determines the corrected probability of an election outcome by accounting for historical bias and time-based uncertainty

evaluate_market_opportunity

Calculates the Expected Value (EV) and determines if a trade signal should be issued

See how to talk to your AI agent using Polling Bias & EV Engine.

Calculate the adjusted probability for a candidate with a 52% raw poll, a 2.5% historical bias, 10 days to election, and 0.03 uncertainty.

The adjusted probability is 0.545 with a confidence interval between 0.515 and 0.575.

The adjusted probability is 0.60 and the market price is 0.50. Is there a trade opportunity?

Yes, the Expected Value (EV) is 0.10, which generates a BUY signal.

Compare a 45% raw poll with a 0.02 historical bias and a market price of 0.50.

The market is Overpricing the raw poll with a price gap of -0.05.

The probability is calculated by taking the raw poll, adding the historical bias, and factoring in a time-decay component based on the remaining days until the election and the polling uncertainty.

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