Over/Under Goals Probability Calculator

Over/Under Goals Probability Calculator MCP Connector for Claude

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Calculate football total-goals probabilities for any goal line using scoreline matrices.

4 tools Official Updated Oct 1, 2026 Official Vinkius Partner

This MCP server provides specialized tools for football (soccer) analysts to calculate the likelihood of total goals in a match. By providing a scoreline matrix (a distribution of possible match outcomes), users can determine the exact probabilities for 'Over', 'Under', and 'Push' scenarios across various goal lines. Use calculate_over_under_probabilities to find probabilities for specific thresholds, get_distribution_summary for statistical insights like expected total goals, or filter_scorelines_by_total to isolate specific goal counts. The server also includes validate_matrix_integrity to ensure your probability distributions are mathematically sound.

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4 tools expose this connector's capabilities to your AI agent.

calculate_over_under_probabilities

Calculates the probability of the total goals being over, under, or pushing a specific goal line

filter_scorelines_by_total

Filters a distribution to only show outcomes that result in a specific total number of goals

get_distribution_summary

Provides a high-level statistical summary of a provided goal distribution

validate_matrix_integrity

Checks if a provided scoreline matrix is mathematically valid for probability calculations

See how to talk to your AI agent using Over/Under Goals Probability Calculator.

Calculate the over/under probabilities for a 2.5 goal line using this matrix: [{"homeGoals": 0, "awayGoals": 0, "probability": 0.1}, {"homeGoals": 1, "awayGoals": 0, "probability": 0.2}, {"homeGoals": 0, "awayGoals": 1, "probability": 0.2}, {"homeGoals": 1, "awayGoals": 1, "probability": 0.5}]

{"overProbability": 0.5, "underProbability": 0.5, "pushProbability": 0.0}

What is the expected total goals for this distribution: [{"homeGoals": 1, "awayGoals": 0, "probability": 0.5}, {"homeGoals": 0, "awayGoals": 1, "probability": 0.5}]

{"expectedTotalGoals": 1.0, "mostLikelyTotalGoals": 1, "probabilityOfZeroGoals": 0.0}

Check if this matrix is valid: [{"homeGoals": 1, "awayGoals": 0, "probability": 0.8}]

{"isValid": false, "reason": "Probabilities sum to 0.8 instead of 1.0"}

A 'push' occurs when the total goals scored exactly match the integer goal line. For half-integer lines like 2.5, a push is impossible.

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