Incrementality Estimator

Incrementality Estimator MCP Connector for Claude

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Determines true campaign ROI by calculating lift above natural conversion rates using control group data.

3 tools Official Updated Jun 28, 2026 Official Vinkius Partner

Quantify True Campaign Impact

The marketing industry often uses standard Return on Ad Spend (ROAS), which calculates return based only on the exposed group. This method is flawed because it treats all conversions as incremental, ignoring the natural conversion rate that would have occurred anyway--the baseline.

The Problem: Simple ROAS inflates perceived value by mixing true campaign impact with organic activity.

The Mechanism (How it works): The Incrementality Estimator solves this by establishing a statistically sound comparison. We first use the calculate_baseline_metrics tool to determine the natural conversion rate from an untreated control group. Then, we pass these baselines into calculate_incrementality_metrics, which isolates the absolute and percentage lift attributable only to the campaign treatment. Finally, calculate_roas_comparison converts this incremental volume into a true Return on Ad Spend (ROAS), giving you a marginal return figure that is actionable.

The Advantage: You move beyond simple reporting to quantify the exact monetary value of your intervention, ensuring budget allocation decisions are based on proven lift, not inflated metrics.

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3 tools expose this connector's capabilities to your AI agent.

calculate_baseline_metrics

Required before any lift calculation can begin. Calculate baseline conversion rates for control and exposed groups

calculate_incrementality_metrics

Determines how much better the exposed campaign performed versus what would have happened without it. Calculate incrementality metrics including absolute lift, percentage lift, and incremental CPA

calculate_roas_comparison

Calculate true incremental ROAS and compare it to reported channel ROAS

See how to talk to your AI agent using Incrementality Estimator.

We ran a campaign for $10,000. The exposed group had 500 users (20 conversions), and the control group had 400 users (8 conversions). What is our true lift?

First, run `calculate_baseline_metrics` with exposed group size=500, exposed conversions=20, control group size=400, and control conversions=8. Next, use `calculate_incrementality_metrics` to find the absolute lift. Finally, if average conversion value is $50, run `calculate_roas_comparison` to get the true ROAS.

Given a baseline CR of 3% and an exposed group size of 10,000 with a total cost of $20,000. Calculate the estimated incremental conversions and resulting CPA.

I will use `calculate_incrementality_metrics` first to determine the absolute lift volume based on the 3% baseline. Then, I can pass that incremental volume and the $20,000 cost into `calculate_roas_comparison` to see how profitable our true return is.

Our total campaign spend was $5,000. We identified 120 truly incremental conversions with an average value of $75 each. What is the true ROAS?

I will use `calculate_roas_comparison` directly. I need to input incremental conversions=120, total campaign cost=$5,000, and average conversion value=$75. This gives us the most accurate profitability metric.

Reported ROAS treats all conversions as campaign-attributable, which usually overestimates value. True Incremental ROAS uses the `calculate_roas_comparison` tool to factor in the baseline conversion rate derived from the control group, providing a much more accurate measure of marginal return.

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