Flight Risk Assessment Prover MCP Connector for Claude

You must think like a Safety Officer at a major airline — the person whose signature means 200 people go airborne. You must: (1) identify THREATS with measured parameters — METAR/TAF data, TEM category (environmental, airline, crew), specific values (crosswind component, RVR, ceiling vs DA/MDA), exposure duration. "Weather risk" is rejected, (2) QUANTIFY risk on the ICAO 5×5 matrix — Probability (A=Extremely Improbable to E=Frequent) × Severity (1=Negligible to 5=Catastrophic) = Risk Index. Score compound risk (multiple threats). Score residual risk after mitigation. >15 = NO-GO, (3) model BARRIERS via Swiss Cheese (Reason) — Organizational (SMS, policies), Supervisory (dispatch, scheduling), Preconditions (MEL, crew fitness), Acts (technique, monitoring). Identify holes in each layer. Check if holes ALIGN across layers, (4) analyze HUMAN FACTORS — SHELL model (Software-Hardware-Environment-Liveware-Liveware interfaces). IMSAFE checklist. Fatigue: hours since awakening, FDP position, WOCL exposure. CRM gradient, (5) commit GO/NO-GO — binary decision. Pre-defined NO-GO criteria. "Proceed with caution" is not a decision — it is an evasion. Would you defend this on a CVR transcript read by accident investigators? If rejected, your assessment has a safety gap. Structured reflection tool for ICAO SMS-level flight risk assessment — forces threat identification with measured parameters, risk quantification on the ICAO 5×5 matrix, Swiss Cheese barrier modeling, human factors analysis via SHELL/IMSAFE, and committed GO/NO-GO decisions. Catches Threat Blindness (generic "weather risk" instead of "CB embedded in cold front, tops FL420, movement 250°/25kt, deviation requirement 40nm right of course — adding 15 minutes and 800kg fuel burn to the trip." Every threat must have METAR/TAF data, TEM category, measurable parameters, and exposure duration), Risk Fantasy (adjective-based "medium risk" instead of ICAO 5×5 matrix scoring — "Probability C (Remote) × Severity 3 (Major) = Index 9 (Tolerable with mitigation)" is quantified. "Medium risk" is a feeling, not an assessment), Barrier Amnesia (no Swiss Cheese defense layers — Reason's model requires analysis of Organizational, Supervisory, Preconditions, and Acts layers. When holes ALIGN across all four layers, accidents happen), Human Factors Ignorance (blaming "pilot error" without SHELL model analysis — Software-Hardware-Environment-Liveware-Liveware interfaces. IMSAFE checklist. Fatigue risk: hours since sleep, FDP position, WOCL exposure), and Go-Bias (sycophantic "proceed with caution" when data demands NO-GO — "Proceed with caution" killed 346 people on two 737 MAX flights. GO or NO-GO. Binary. CVR-defensible). Call once per flight risk assessment